probably will. But the minority provinces of Baluchistan and North-West Frontier have already shown sympathy for Sheikh Mujib's ideas about provincial autonomy. Martial Law will presumably continue to apply in West Pakistan and even Mr. Bhutto may be weary of a situation which prevents him from taking power in any shape.
In the same speech in which be branded Sheikh Mujib a traitor, President Yahya reiterated that his main aim remained the same i.e. the transfer of power to the people's elected representatives “as soon as the situation permits". But when will it permit. And who will be regarded as an acceptable elected representatives of East Pakistan"? If Sheikh Mujib is ruled out the President will either have to hope that a quisling will emerge to negotiate with him, or call new elections. Unless these elections are rigged it is hard to see anyone now winning the East Pakistani vote except of a ticket not of autonomy, but of independence. It does see that unless President Yahya drops his present definition of the unity and integrity of Pakistan he will never shed the office he so fervently disclaims.
The optimistic hope is that tight martial law will cool the situation down to a point where some sort of negotiations on provincial autonomy could start again. This hope depends on whether you believe that President Yahya was negotiating at Dacca in good faith or just buying time for military preparations. There is evidence that he was doing both. But if the President did not think the talks would solve anything, it is difficult not to agree with him. For the talks were only about the conditions of Sheikh Mujib's attendance at the National Assembly; they did not tackle real question of the Sheikh Mujib's six- point plan for East Pakistan. And those six points would inevitably have divided President Yahya and Sheikh Mujib sooner or later. Control of foreign trade would have let East Pakistan to trade with India, which would have given it one main attribute of independent foreign policy. There is no halfway house in the kind of autonomy Sheikh Mujib was demanding. So, however, much one may dislike what President Yahya has done, it is difficult not to agree with him the negotiations over Sheikh Mujib's demands could only result in all or nothing. President Yahya has decided on nothing.
The fact that Bengali resistance seems to have been easily crushed by the army makes it unlikely that anyone abroad is going to offer recognition to Bangladesh. But guerrilla activity may get outside help notably from India. On Wednesday the Indian Parliament unanimously passed a resolution, moved by Mrs. Gandhi, condemning the use of force in East Pakistan. There is pressure on Mrs. Gandhi to go further than this, West Bengalis have already offered aims and shelter to East Pakistani “freedom fighters". But Mrs. Gandhi is alive to the dangers of overt, official support, she has warned Indians that “one wrong step or one wrong word may have an effect entirely different to what we all intend". She should be cautious in her acts as her words. The Pakistani army would crack down the Bengalis all the harder if Indian involvement were suspected.
No doubt Mrs. Gandhi also fears the long-term effects of guerrilla co-operation between East and West Bengal. If Maoist propaganda came to replace Hindu-Muslim mistrust' it could lay the foundations of a united Bengal, independent of India, too. But Mrs. Gandhi will find it hard to seal off India's 900 mile border with East Pakistan; and unofficial Indian support would create the classic RECPE for guerrilla success with East Pakistani guerrillas striking out of a safe Indian hinterland.
