বাংলাদেশের স্বাধীনতা যুদ্ধ দলিলপত্রঃ তৃতীয় পত্র
independence of Bangladesh is inevitable. It is only a matter of time. Therefore, India would also think likewise and being in the most advantageous position would also like to see (and who would not in relation to a smaller country!) that Bangladesh comes under her complete political influence if not within her territory.
In the premises as mentioned, it will not be surprising if this is India's ultimate goal and they are only waiting for a suitable time to materialize this plan. The way it is going it does not look unlikely. As for a political settlement, India would like to give it a chance knowing that if it is possible it does not harm them but there is a greater possibility that this attempt would not materialize.
India has shown all amount of restraint and sobriety over the Bangladesh crisis. It has improved its prestige before the world for giving shelter to 9 million people and at (he same time by not taking any extreme measure such as recognition or military action. To accept the idea of a political settlement is only to show that India is also reasonable in her approach to the problem but at the same time buying time for an action to be taken at her choice with the initiative in her own hands. As soon as the month of October would be over the initiative of any military action from Pakistan's point of view will, to some extent, disappear and from November till the end of February India will have a big' opportunity to achieve her goal. If Bangladesh is at all to be independent, India would like to see that she brings it. In the meantime all the frustrations, leadership squabbles, acts of sabotage by Mukti Bahini ruining the economy of Bangladesh, and all the other factors could also create such a situation that India would not find them unsuitable to march into Bangladesh and restore a Government of her own choice.
Indian Prime Minister's recent visit to Moscow was also very fruitful in the sense that she has been able to bring Russia close to her stand by committing Russia for a political solution based on the inalienable rights and interests of the people of East Pakistan. This is not a small achievement. The effect of the whole exercise is this that India has agreed to an honorable political settlement acceptable to the people of Bangladesh provided Russia can bring it. But she has at the same time kept an opening for taking appropriate measures if the attempt of a peaceful settlement fails. If the time proves that the settlement the Russians and the rest of the world desire cannot be materialized, India may take a military offensive and in such case Russia will have no other alternative but to support India and the rest of the world would also not be that hostile for such an action. If India can manage a quick victory world intervention will have no practical effect.
In view of the fact that the State elections are to be held at the beginning of next Year it is another factor which would influence the mind of Indira Gandhi to take a decisive action before the elections are held. By doing so and if she is successful she will continue to enjoy an absolute power in the Central Government of India and may also win in all other Non-Congress states including West Bengal where the Congress Party is relatively weaker at this moment.
