resulting in demonstrations in which hundreds of people died in army firing on March 1. Despite this provocation. Sheikh Mujib kept the door for negotiations open. General Yahya Khan appeared to respond by holding talks for two weeks with the Awami League leadership. In retrospect, this appears to have been a ploy, to buy time for reinforcing the West Pakistani armed forces in the East. On March 25, the military authority outlawed the Awami League, arrested its leaders, and opened fire with tanks, artillery, and automatic weapons (much of it supplied by the U. S.) on the defenseless and unarmed civilians.9
The military's approach appears to be to intimidate the urban population through a reign of terror. Killing and destruction apparently have been indiscriminate. Reports on the number killed in the first three days ranged from 15,000 up.
In the short run the army can intimidate the people of the major cities. But it cannot even now control any substantial part of the countryside. In the long run the military position is untenable. In a hostile environment and given the logistical problems, maintaining even the 60,000 West Pakistani troops now in the East, will be difficult. Moreover, the military cannot possibly guard the borders or prevent the Bengalis from acquiring arms with which to resist.
The Bengalis have now declared themselves independent and have the will to fight. In the end, they will win; the only question is time, how many deaths, and how much destruction must take place before they achieve their independence.
The recent elections provided East Pakistan with a political party capable of governing. Rather than a civil war, the present action is more of an invasion of one state by the military of another, with the aim of over throwing a duly elected Government and subjugating the people.
II
AN INDEPENDENT EAST PAKISTAN IN THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY
Bangladesh, the name chosen by East Pakistanis for their desired nation, is bound to establish good relations with India. Apart from the cultural bonds of a common Language-Bengali-between East Pakistan and the state of West Bengal in India, interest in strong economic ties coincides. The industrialization of East Pakistan would be greatly facilitated by the nearby supply of coal and iron ore in West Bengal. Even for agricultural growth, much of the investment to improve water control would have to be undertaken in India, presumably as cooperative ventures, likely with World Bank support. India would benefit not only from water control but also from direct access to the East Pakistan market, and incidentally by the improvement of access to Assam. Historically, in spite of evident mutual interest in regularizing cultural and trade relationships between India and East Pakistan, such a development was consistently discouraged and resisted by the West Pakistani-dominated Government. Specifically, the West Pakistanis believed that, short of war and victory, they have no other lever to force a settlement of the Kashmir claim but the economic interest of India in resuming trade in the East.
