পাতা:বাংলাদেশের স্বাধীনতা যুদ্ধ দলিলপত্র (ত্রয়োদশ খণ্ড).pdf/৬৬০

632 ংলাদেশের স্বাধীনতা যুদ্ধ দলিলপত্রঃ ত্রয়োদশ খন্ড of fertilizer. According to field staff of the ADC and Department of Agriculture and our own observations, the acreage planted is some 15% below normal and the average yield on this reduced acreage is also likely to be down by a minimum of 15%. This works out to a minimum drop in production of 28%. 18. More seriously, present indications are that the important aman crop may also be considerably affected. If this is to be avoided, severe problems of delay, lack of seed and difficulty in providing inputs will have to be overcome. In general, the entire process of aman planting appears to be seriously behind schedule. For highest yields transplanting from mid-July to mid-August-but preferably in mid-Julyis recommended. Allowing for one month in the nurseries, this means that seedlings should have gone into the nurseries by mid-June: however, very little preparation of fields or nursery beds was observed during our various tours of the Province. An additional factor is that, owing to heavy early rains, late transplanting has been attempted on much of the aus acreage and this late aus is not likely to be off the fields before late August. This means, as a minimum, that aman planting may be further postponed and yields correspondingly reduced. In some areas, the planting of aman may be precluded altogether. 19. For a variety of reasons-the tiring of farmers' houses and market places. Army "requisition", the flight of refugees who have taken seed stock with them for food, etc. much aman seed appears to have been lost throughout the Province. And given the disruption of administration and the transport and distribution system, it is difficult to see how all the lost seed can be replaced or sufficient seed be supplied to areas, that are normally in deficit, in time for the aman planting. Though fertilizer is available in the Province, point-of-use storage is in most cases adequate for only a few days requirements during the growing season. As the entire process depends so critically upon the transport and distribution system, it appears most unlikely that fertilizer will be available in all the right places at the right times. Timely pesticide application, which is difficult in normal times, can hardly be expected. 20. Areas where the situation is particularly serious are the cyclone disaster area and the western border areas. In the former area, the supply of draft animals for land preparation remains drastically below requirements, while people are already going hungry and unless and effective relief operation is mounted immediately are likely to turn to seed stocks for food. In the latter area, cultivation is being considerably reduced by the absence of many farmers and the continuing harassment by both sides of those remaining. If conditions conducive to normal pursuit of agricultural activities were restored promptly, and all efforts made to supply farmers with the necessary inputs, the adverse effects of the present situations on the aman crop could perhaps be contained. However, on the basis of present conditions. It is the Mission's estimate that total aman acreage may be 20-30% below normal and that some drop in the yield is also likely. All factors considered, the overall drop in agricultural production may well be of the Order of 30%. 21. Obviously, this assessment must be regarded as tentative, particularly as it applies to aman, the largest crop, where it is still too easy in the season to make definitive judgments and where prompt remedial action could still be effective in improving crop